For the first time since they selected Auston Matthews first overall in 2016, the Toronto Maple Leafs are picking at the top of the NHL Draft. The Maple Leafs won the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery on Tuesday night at the NHL Network studios in Secaucus, New Jersey, jumping from the fifth-best lottery position to claim the No. 1 overall selection in the upcoming 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft.
Toronto, which finished 28th in the NHL standings with a 32-36-14 record and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016, had just an 8.5 percent chance of winning the lottery. The victory comes at a pivotal moment for the franchise, which this week announced sweeping front-office changes, hiring John Chayka as general manager and adding Hall of Famer Mats Sundin as senior executive advisor of hockey operations.
"You need some luck and we got it tonight," Chayka said after the draw. "It's a long road ahead, of course, and lots of work to do still, but when you get a first overall pick, it's a monumental type of opportunity."
How the Lottery Unfolded: Live Draw Brings Transparency
The 2026 draft lottery was held live for the second consecutive year, marking a new era of transparency for the event. Previously, the drawing of lottery balls was conducted in a separate, sequestered room before the TV broadcast, with NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman presiding over the draw and accounting firm Ernst & Young overseeing the process. Now, fans witness the drama unfold in real time as the balls are drawn.
Four balls numbered 1 through 14 produce 1,001 possible four-number combinations, with one combination (11-12-13-14) designated as a redraw, allowing the NHL to divide the remaining 1,000 combinations among the 16 non-playoff teams. The Vancouver Canucks, who finished 32nd overall, received 185 combinations. The Chicago Blackhawks (31st) received 135, and the New York Rangers (30th) received 115. Toronto, with the fifth-best odds, received 85 combinations.
Two draws were conducted: the first locked in the No. 1 pick, and the second determined the rest of the order. A team can move up a maximum of 10 spots, meaning only the top 11 seeds were eligible for the first pick. The Maple Leafs are the third team in the past six lotteries to win despite not having the best odds, joining the Chicago Blackhawks (2023, third-best odds) and the New York Islanders (2025, 10th-best odds).
Timeline: Toronto's Road to the Top Pick
The Maple Leafs' journey to the No. 1 pick began long before Tuesday night's lottery draw. March-April 2026: Toronto struggles through the regular season, finishing 28th in the NHL standings with 78 points, missing the postseason for the first time in a decade. April 8, 2026: NHL Central Scouting releases its final rankings, with Gavin McKenna topping the North American skaters list by a "considerable margin" and Ivar Stenberg ranking No. 1 among International skaters. May 4, 2026: The Maple Leafs announce sweeping front-office changes, hiring John Chayka as general manager and bringing in Mats Sundin as senior executive advisor. May 5, 2026: The NHL Draft Lottery takes place live at NHL Network studios. Toronto wins the No. 1 pick with 8.5% odds. San Jose wins the No. 2 pick. June 26-27, 2026: The 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft will be held at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with Round 1 on June 26 and Rounds 2-7 on June 27.
Why the No. 1 Pick Matters: The McKenna-Stenberg Debate
The prize at the top of this year's draft is clear: Penn State freshman left wing Gavin McKenna is the consensus top prospect. The 18-year-old from Whitehorse, Yukon, finished tied for fifth in the NCAA with 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) in just 35 games, averaging 1.46 points per game. He was named Big Ten Freshman of the Year, a two-time National Rookie of the Month, and the only unanimous choice on the Big Ten All-Freshman Team.
McKenna was the most prominent among the 175 CHL players who made the jump to the NCAA this season, the first year CHL players were eligible to play college hockey. Last season with Medicine Hat of the WHL, he posted 129 points (41 goals, 88 assists) in 56 games and was named player of the year in both the WHL and the Canadian Hockey League. He is expected to become the first Penn State men's hockey player ever selected in the first round of the NHL Draft.
"He's an exciting player," Chayka said of McKenna. "The skill level, the creativity, his puck ability and his shot release is all pretty special. It's a good package."
The alternative at No. 1 is Swedish left wing Ivar Stenberg of Frolunda in the SHL. The 18-year-old had 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 43 games, the most points by an 18-year-old in the SHL since Daniel Sedin (42) and Henrik Sedin (34) in 1998-99. Stenberg is ranked No. 1 on NHL Central Scouting's final ranking of International skaters.
"(McKenna and Stenberg) are very talented, gifted players," said San Jose Sharks GM Mike Grier, who watched both extensively. "Dynamic with the puck. They're both shoot-pass threats, which is not always the case with young players."
Beyond the top two, the draft class features five highly-regarded defensemen projected as potential franchise cornerstones: Chase Reid (Sault Ste. Marie, OHL), Carson Carels (Prince George, WHL), Keaton Verhoeff (North Dakota, NCAA), Daxon Rudolph (Prince Albert, WHL), and Alberts Smits (Munchen, DEL), who at 18 was the youngest player at the 2026 Winter Olympics for Latvia.
Where Things Stand Now: The Full Lottery Results
The lottery set the order of selection for the first 16 picks. Here are the top picks following Tuesday's draw: 1. Toronto Maple Leafs (moved from 5th), 2. San Jose Sharks (won second draw), 3. Vancouver Canucks (finished 32nd), 4. Chicago Blackhawks (finished 31st), 5. New York Rangers (finished 30th), followed by Calgary Flames, Seattle Kraken, Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks, Montreal Canadiens, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Detroit Red Wings. Picks 17-32 will be determined by the results of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Sharks, who won the No. 2 pick in the second draw with just a 5.5 percent chance, will pick in the top four for the fourth consecutive year. San Jose selected Will Smith (No. 4, 2023), Macklin Celebrini (No. 1, 2024), and Michael Misa (No. 2, 2025). "I'm shocked, really," Grier said. "You never know what's going to happen and how the balls are going to bounce."
The Maple Leafs will pick No. 1 for just the third time in franchise history, previously selecting Wendel Clark (1985) and Auston Matthews (2016). Matthews went on to become a franchise cornerstone and one of the NHL's elite scorers, setting high expectations for whoever Toronto selects this June.
What Happens Next: Toronto's Road to the Draft
The Maple Leafs now face a critical six weeks of evaluation and decision-making. Chayka said he has tracked McKenna for years, and Sundin noted the importance of the scouting process ahead. "It's going to be interesting and a lot of looking at these different players knowing we have the first overall pick," Sundin said.
The 2026 draft will take place at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on June 26-27, with Round 1 broadcast on ESPN, Sportsnet, and TVA Sports. The Maple Leafs' front office will spend the coming weeks meeting with prospects, conducting interviews, and finalizing their draft board. The team could also explore trade options for the pick, though the opportunity to add a generational talent like McKenna — who won't play for Canada at the men's world championship as his draft year concludes — would be difficult to pass up.
"I'm extremely happy for the Toronto Maple Leafs fanbase, of course," Sundin said. "It's great to get the first pick. Great night, great lottery."
Key Takeaways from the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery
- Toronto Maple Leafs won the No. 1 pick with 8.5% odds, jumping from 5th to 1st on the second consecutive live lottery broadcast
- Gavin McKenna (51 NCAA points in 35 games) and Ivar Stenberg (33 SHL points, most by an 18-year-old since Daniel Sedin) are the top two prospects
- The Maple Leafs' win comes just days after hiring John Chayka as GM and Mats Sundin as senior advisor following a front-office overhaul
- San Jose Sharks won the No. 2 pick for the fourth straight top-four selection; Vancouver Canucks hold No. 3
- The 2026 NHL Draft will be held June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York
