The stage is set for one of the most anticipated events of the 2026 Winter Olympics as the women's figure skating free skate prepares to crown a new Olympic champion. After a stunning short program that saw 17-year-old Japanese sensation Ami Nakai deliver a season-best performance, the medal contenders are separated by mere points heading into Thursday's decisive free skate at Milano Cortina 2026.
How the Olympic Figure Skating Competition Unfolded
In what commentators are calling one of the most competitive women's figure skating fields in Olympic history, the short program delivered drama, technical brilliance, and unexpected twists. Ami Nakai, competing in her first senior Olympic Games, landed a massive triple Axel to score 78.71 points and take the lead. Right behind her sits three-time world champion Kaori Sakamoto of Japan with 76.85 points, while American hope Alysa Liu sits third with 76.59 points.
The competition represents Japan's best chance in two decades to reclaim the women's singles gold medal that has eluded them since Shizuka Arakawa's victory in 2006. With Nakai's youthful brilliance and Sakamoto's veteran experience, Japan could potentially secure a historic 1-2 finish on Olympic ice.
Timeline: The Road to the Free Skate Final
The journey to Thursday's free skate has been building for years. Nakai, just 17, entered these Games as a rising star but not the favorite. Her stunning short program performance on Tuesday, February 17, immediately made her the athlete to beat. On Wednesday, skaters had their final practice sessions, with Liu reportedly landing multiple triple Axels in practice, signaling her readiness for a comeback.
The free skate competition begins at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, February 19, with the medal ceremony scheduled for later that evening. Skaters will perform their four-minute programs in reverse order of their short program standings, meaning Liu will skate earlier in the final group, followed by Sakamoto, with Nakai taking the ice last as the leader.
Why This Olympic Final Matters: Expert Analysis
This women's figure skating final represents more than just another gold medal. For Japan, it's about reclaiming dominance in a sport where they've produced multiple world champions but haven't won Olympic gold in 20 years. For the United States, it's about breaking a drought that dates back to Tara Lipinski's 1998 victory.
"What we're seeing is a generational shift in women's figure skating," said Olympic analyst and former skater Johnny Weir. "Nakai represents the new wave of technically brilliant skaters, while Sakamoto brings the artistry and consistency that has made her a three-time world champion. Liu sits perfectly in between with the potential to outscore both if she delivers the program of her life."
The technical elements will decide this competition. Nakai's triple Axel gives her a base value advantage, but both Sakamoto and Liu have more difficult combinations planned for their free skates. Liu's training reports suggest she may attempt two triple Axels in her free program, which could potentially give her the technical score needed to overcome the 2.12-point deficit.
Where Things Stand Now: The Current Olympic Landscape
As skaters make their final preparations, the pressure falls heaviest on Nakai. The 17-year-old has never faced this level of expectation in her young career. "I'm just trying to enjoy the experience and skate for fun," Nakai told reporters after her short program. That attitude has served her well so far, but Olympic finals have broken even the most seasoned competitors.
For Sakamoto, this represents her "last dance" at the Olympics. The 25-year-old has announced this will be her final competitive season, adding emotional weight to her pursuit of the only major title missing from her resume. Liu, meanwhile, carries the hopes of American figure skating after a disappointing team event showing that saw the U.S. finish off the podium.
What Happens Next: Predictions for Olympic Gold
The free skate will come down to who can handle the Olympic pressure. Nakai has the lead but must skate last, knowing exactly what score she needs. Sakamoto has the experience of multiple world championships but has sometimes struggled with consistency in big moments. Liu has the technical content to win but needs to deliver a clean program for the first time in these Games.
Most experts give a slight edge to Sakamoto based on her consistency and experience, but Nakai's fearless approach makes her dangerous. Liu remains the wild card—if she lands both triple Axels planned in her program, she could potentially outscore both Japanese skaters and pull off the comeback victory.
The Bottom Line: Key Points to Remember
• Ami Nakai leads with 78.71 points after the short program
• Kaori Sakamoto sits second (76.85) and Alysa Liu third (76.59)
• The free skate begins at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, February 19
• Japan seeks its first women's singles gold since 2006
• Liu aims to end a 20-year American drought in women's figure skating
• The competition could be decided by who lands the most triple Axels
One thing is certain: when the final note of music plays on Thursday evening, Olympic history will be made, and a new champion will be crowned in one of the Winter Games' most storied events.
